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Klima
im Wandel - Climate Change
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Klimawandel |
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Klimawandel |
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WMO
Statement on the Status of the global Climate in 2006
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| GENEVA,
14 December 2006 (WMO)
The
global mean surface temperature in 2006 is currently estimated to be +
0.42°C above the 1961-1990 annual average (14°C/57.2°F), according
to the records maintained by Members of the World Meteorological organisation
(WMO). The year 2006 is currently estimated to be the sixth warmest year
on record. Final figures will not be released until March 2007.
Averaged
separately for both hemispheres, 2006 surface temperatures for the northern
hemisphere (0.58°C above 30-year mean of 14.6°C/58.28°F) are
likely to be the fourth warmest and for the southern hemisphere (0.26°C
above 30-year mean of 13.4°C/56.12°F), the seventh warmest in the
instrumental record from 1861 to the present.
Since
the start of the 20th century, the global average surface temperature has
risen approximately 0.7°C. But this rise has not been continuous. Since
1976, the global average temperature has risen sharply, at 0.18°C per
decade. In the northern and southern hemispheres, the period 1997-2006
averaged 0.53°C and 0.27°C above the 1961-1990 mean, respectively.
Regional
temperature anomalies
The
beginning of 2006 was unusually mild in large parts of North America and
the western European Arctic islands, though there were harsh winter conditions
in Asia, the Russian Federation and parts of eastern Europe. Canada experienced
its mildest winter and spring on record, the USA its warmest January-September
on record and the monthly temperatures in the Arctic island of Spitsbergen
(Svalbard Lufthavn) for January and April included new highs with anomalies
of +12.6°C and +12.2°C, respectively.
Persistent
extreme heat affected much of eastern Australia from late December 2005
until early March with many records being set (e.g. second hottest day
on record in Sydney with 44.2°C/111.6°F on 1 January). Spring 2006
(September-November) was Australia's warmest since seasonal records were
first compiled in 1950. Heat waves were also registered in Brazil from
January until March (e.g. 44.6°C/112.3°F in Bom Jesus on 31 January
- one of the highest temperatures ever recorded in Brazil).
Several
parts of Europe and the USA experienced heat waves with record temperatures
in July and August. Air temperatures in many parts of the USA reached 40°C/104°F
or more. The July European-average land-surface air temperature was the
warmest on record at 2.7°C above the climatological normal.
Autumn
2006 (September-November) was exceptional in large parts of Europe at more
than 3°C warmer than the climatological normal from the north side
of the Alps to southern Norway. In many countries it was the warmest autumn
since official measurements began: records in central England go back to
1659 (1706 in The Netherlands and 1768 in Denmark). |
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Prolonged
drought in some regions
Long-term
drought continued in parts of the Greater Horn of Africa including parts
of Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and the United
Republic of Tanzania. At least 11 million people were affected by food
shortages; Somalia was hit by the worst drought in a decade.
For
many areas in Australia, the lack of adequate rainfall in 2006 added to
significant longer-term dry conditions, with large regions having experienced
little recovery from the droughts of 2002-2003 and 1997-1998. Dry conditions
have now persisted for 5 to 10 years in some areas and in south-west Western
Australia for around 30 years.
Across
the USA, moderate-to-exceptional drought persisted throughout parts of
the south-west desert and eastward through the southern plains, also developing
in areas west of the Great Lakes. Drought and anomalous warmth contributed
to a record wildfire season for the USA, with more than 3.8 million hectares
burned through early December. Drought in the south of Brazil caused significant
damage to agriculture in the early part of the year with losses of about
11 per cent estimated for the soybean crop yield alone.
Severe
drought conditions also affected China. Millions of hectares of crops were
damaged in Sichuan province during summer and in eastern China in autumn.
Significant economic losses as well as severe shortages in drinking water
were other consequences.
Heavy
precipitation and flooding
As
the 2005/2006 rainy season was ending, most countries in southern Africa
were experiencing satisfactory rainfall during the first quarter of 2006.
In northern Africa, floods were recorded in Morocco and Algeria during
2006 causing infrastructure damage and some casualties. Rare heavy rainfall
in the Sahara Desert region of Tindouf produced severe flooding in February
damaging 70 per cent of food stocks and displacing 60 000 people. In Bilma,
Niger, the highest rainfall since 1923 affected nearly 50 000 people throughout
August. In the same month, the most extensive precipitation in 50 years
brought significant agricultural losses to the region of Zinder, Niger.
Heavy rain also caused devastating floods in Ethiopia in August, claiming
more than 600 lives. Some of the worst floods occurred in Dire Dawa and
along the swollen Omo River. Again in October and November, the Great Horn
of Africa countries experienced heavy rainfall associated with severe flooding.
The worst hit areas were in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. Somalia is undergoing
its worst flooding in recent history; some places have received more than
six times their average monthly rainfall and hundreds of thousands of people
have been affected. This year's floods are said to be the worst in 50 years
in the Great Horn of Africa region. The heavy rains followed a period of
long-lasting drought and the dry ground was unable to soak up large amounts
of rainfall.
Heavy
rainfall in Bolivia and Equador in the first months of the year caused
severe floods and landslides with tens of thousands of people affected.
Torrential rainfall in Suriname during early May produced the country's
worst disaster in recent times.
After
500 mm of torrential rainfall during a five-day period in February, a large-scale
landslide occurred in Leyte Island, the Philippines with more than 1 000
casualties. Although close to average in total rainfall, the Indian monsoon
season brought many heavy rainfall events with the highest rainfall in
24-hours ever recorded in several locations.
Only
months after the destructive summer flooding in eastern Europe in 2005,
heavy rainfall and snowmelt produced extensive flooding along the River
Danube in April and the river reached its highest level in more than a
century. Areas of Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Serbia were the hardest
hit with hundreds of thousands of hectares inundated and tens of thousands
of people affected.
Persistent
and heavy rainfall during 10-15 May brought historic flooding to New England
(USA), described as the worst in 70 years in some areas. Across the US
mid-Atlantic and north-east, exceptionally heavy rainfall occurred in June.
Numerous daily and monthly records were set and the rainfall caused widespread
flooding which forced the evacuation of some 200 000 people. Vancouver
in Canada experienced its wettest month ever in November with 351 mm, nearly
twice the average monthly accumulation.
Development
of moderate El Niño in late 2006
Conditions
in the equatorial Pacific from December 2005 until the first quarter of
2006 showed some patterns typically associated with La Niña events.
These however, did not lead to a basin-wide La Niña and, during
April, even weak La Niña conditions dissipated. Over the second
quarter of 2006, the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators reflected
neutral conditions but, in August, conditions in the central and western
equatorial Pacific started resembling typical early stages of an El Niño
event (see WMO Press Release 765). By the end of the year, positive sea-surface
temperature anomalies were established across the tropical Pacific basin.
The El Niño event is expected by global consensus to continue at
least into the first quarter of 2007.
Deadly
typhoons in south-east Asia
In
the north-west Pacific, 22 tropical cyclones developed (average 27), 14
of which classified as typhoons. Typhoons Chanchu, Prapiroon, Kaemi, Saomai,
Xangsane, Cimaron and tropical storm Bilis brought deaths, casualties and
severe damage to the region. Landed tropical cyclones caused more than
1 000 fatalities and economic losses of US $ 10 billion in China, which
made 2006 the severest year in a decade. Typhoon Durian affected some 1.5
million people in the Philippines in November/December 2006, claiming more
than 500 lives with hundreds still missing.
During
the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, nine named tropical storms developed
(average: ten). Five of the named storms were hurricanes (average six)
and two of those were "major" hurricanes (category three or higher on the
Saffir-Simpson scale). In the eastern North Pacific 19 named storms developed,
which is well above the average of 16; eleven reached hurricane strength
of which six attained "major" status.
Twelve
tropical cyclones developed in the Australian Basin, two more than the
long-term average. Tropical cyclone Larry was the most intense at landfall
in Queensland since 1918, destroying 80-90 per cent of the Australian banana
crop.
Ozone
depletion in the Antarctic and Arctic
On
25 September, the maximum area of the 2006 ozone hole over the Antarctic
was recorded at 29.5 million km_, slightly larger than the previous record
area of 29.4 million km_ reached in September 2000. These values are so
similar that the ozone holes of these two years could be judged of equal
size. The size and persistence of the 2006 ozone hole area with its ozone
mass deficit of 40.8 megatonnes (also a record) can be explained by the
continuing presence of near-peak levels of ozone-depleting substances in
combination with a particularly cold stratospheric winter. Low temperatures
in the first part of January prompted a 20 per cent loss in the ozone layer
over the Arctic in 2006 (see WMO Press Release 760). Milder temperatures
from late January precluded the large ozone loss seen in 2005.
Arctic
sea-ice decline continues
The
year 2006 continues the pattern of sharply decreasing Arctic sea ice. The
average sea-ice extent for the entire month of September was 5.9 million
km_, the second lowest on record missing the 2005 record by 340 000 km_.
Including 2006, the September rate of sea ice decline is now approximately
-8.59% per decade, or 60 421 km_ per year.
Information
sources
This
preliminary information for 2006 is based on observations up to the end
of November from networks of land-based weather stations, ships and buoys.
The data are collected and disseminated on a continuing basis by the National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services of WMO Members. However, the declining
state of some observational platforms in some parts of the world is of
concern.
It
should be noted that, following established practice, WMO's global temperature
analyses are based on two different datasets. One is the combined dataset
maintained by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office, and the Climatic
Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK. The other is maintained by
the US Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA). Results from these two datasets are comparable: both indicate that
2006 is likely to be the sixth warmest year globally.
More
extensive updated information will be made available in the annual WMO
Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2006, to be published
in early March 2007.
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| Source:
World Meteorological organisation (WMO), December 2006, WMO
is the United Nations' authoritative voice on weather, climate and water |
This
is a report issued in collaboration with the Hadley Centre of the Met Office,
UK, the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK and in the
USA: NOAA's National Climatic Data Centre, National Environmental Satellite
and Data Information Service and NOAA's National Weather Service. Other
contributors are WMO Member countries: Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria,
Canada, China, Denmark, India, Ireland, France, Germany, Hungary, Japan,
Mauritius, Morocco, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Romania, Sweden
and Switzerland. The African Centre of Meteorological Applications for
Development (ACMAD) also contributed.
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