RAOnline Nepal: Earthquakes in Nepal - Earthquake Contingency Plan 2008

Earthquake Preparedness

'Inevitable' Himalayan earthquake will threaten the country

Nepal's Nature Earthquakes

Disaster Scenario and Planning Assumptions

Earthquake Contingency Plan 2008:

Disaster Scenario and Planning Assumptions

Several studies have been undertaken to predict the results of an earthquake in the Kathmandu Valley, resulting in varying scenarios for disaster impact and aftermath. A scenario recently developed for planning purposes by OCHA, which envisages an earthquake of 8.3 magnitudes centred on the Kathmandu Valley, uses the following figures:

Up to 40,000 dead

Up to 95,000 injured

Up to 900,000 homeless

60% of buildings destroyed

Only two or three of the 14 hospitals in the valley with an in-patient capacity of thirty or more still functional

95% of water pipes and 50% of pumping stations and treatment plants seriously affected; water supply disrupted for several months

60% of telephones unusable for up to a month

40% of electricity lines and all sub-stations non-functional for a month

50% of bridges and many narrow roads unusable because of damage and debris

Kathmandu international airport isolated by collapse of access roads and bridges; runway partially or totally unusable.

This will be the immediate aftermath of the disaster, but as the first post-disaster hours pass other pressing issues and concerns will arise:

Aftershocks may continue for several weeks, disrupting search and rescue and recovery efforts and spreading panic amongst survivors, many of whom will have been so traumatised by the disaster that they may have difficulty cooperating with or participating in rescue and relief operations.

While much of the material used for building construction in the valley is not highly inflammable, structural damage to poorly-insulated electrical systems may provoke widespread small fires, which could be difficult to control due to the disruption of the water supply.

Blocked roads and collapsed bridges will seriously hinder movement of persons, relief goods, and equipment within the valley for a period of days after the earthquake.

Few hospitals will survive the earthquake, and medical stocks may be damaged or inaccessible. This, with many medical staff dead, injured, or homeless, will complicate the treatment of the close to 100,000 people wounded in the disaster.

Conventional communications systems (landline telephones, mobile phones, etc.) will cease to function. HF and VHF radio and satcom systems will work as long as equipment is undamaged and some source of electricity is available to recharge batteries; in practice, with fuel supplies for generators disrupted or non-existent, these back-up communications systems may also cease to function after a few hours or days.

Availability of drinking water will be a serious problem, since much of the potable water in the valley is stored in roof-top cisterns and containers, most of which would be destroyed in the earthquake.

Sanitary conditions would deteriorate rapidly due to disruption of the drainage and sewerage system in urban areas, which is in any event in poor repair.

Depending on the time of year the disaster occurs, individuals trapped in the rubble of collapsed buildings will not survive more than a maximum of 96 hours. The extrication and disposal of human remains will pose a serious problem given the lack of transport to move the dead and the difficulty of locating sites and collecting fuel for cremation.

Shelter will present a major challenge, more so if the earthquake happens during the rainy season. Individuals will be traumatised and fearful of returning to surviving buildings for shelter, especially if these have been damaged in the earthquake. While some survivors may improvise shelter from the rubble of destroyed structures, the plight of the 900,000 homeless will present a daunting problem to first responders.

With roads into the valley closed by landslides and the international airport either totally disrupted or operating at limited capacity, it will be some days - possibly as much as a week - after the earthquake before international relief teams, equipment, and supplies begin to arrive in the valley in any quantity.

Source: Nepal Red Cross Society, November 2008